3 Hot Takes: Everton docked points, finances, and a SALE
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Data is from FBRef, save for high turnovers, which are from The Analyst.
1. Everton docked 10 points for breaking financial rules
We’ll get into the whys and hows of Everton’s financial issues, as well as what it means for certain other clubs who might be in some trouble with the Premier League, in the next two sections. For now, let’s just focus on what losing 10 points means for Everton on the pitch and their chances of Premier League survival.
The thing about Everton this season is that they’ve been good. Not “good for a team fighting relegation” good. Actually good. Their +0.18 expected goal difference per game is ninth-best in the Premier League. That’s still driven by the first three matches of the season, in which they failed to score from 5.5 xG. Shit happens. Since then, they’re a touch over their xG, but nothing major. Sean Dyche has turned them into a really solid outfit, which was clear even before the results started coming.
Dyche’s Burnley always had a pretty unique style of pressing a fair bit in the kind of bottom half vs bottom half matches that most people don’t bother to tune in for. He’s doubled down on this at Everton, with the toffees seventh in the table for “high turnovers” within 40 metres (44 yards) of the opponent’s goal. This is not a “low block” team as such. It’s still recognisably Dyche football with their second-best xG per shot conceded (in other words, the average shot Everton concede is less likely to go in than any other Premier League team bar Newcastle). And in attack, they have the second most xG created from set pieces. It’s the same Dyche we know, but he’s been broadening his horizons.
Before the punishment, I was extremely confident that Everton would stay up. The Toffees have a positive xG difference right now and, while that may not last, let’s assume it stays above zero for a second. Here are all the sides outside the Rich Seven to end the season with a positive xG difference per 90 since 2017/18, and how they would’ve finished if they had been deducted ten points.
Leicester 17/18 (+0.05): 37 points, 15th place
Crystal Palace 17/18 (+0.14): 34 points, 17th place
Wolves 18/19 (+0.26): 47 points, 12th place
Everton 18/19 (+0.10): 44 points, 13th place
Leicester 18/19 (+0.23): 42 points, 14th place
Leicester 19/20 (+0.44): 52 points, 10th place
Wolves 19/20 (+0.42): 49 points, 11th place
Southampton 19/20 (+0.09): 42 points, 14th place
Everton 19/20 (+0.07): 39 points, 15th place
Leicester 20/21 (+0.26): 56 points, 10th place
West Ham 20/21 (+0.18): 55 points, 10th place
Aston Villa 20/21 (+0.04): 45 points, 11th place (astonishingly, unchanged)
Brighton 20/21 (+0.41): 31 points, 17th place
Brighton 21/22 (+0.09): 41 points, 14th place
Crystal Palace 21/22 (+0.15): 38 points, 16th place
Brighton 22/23 (+0.61): 52 points, 9th place
Brentford 22/23 (+0.18): 49 points, 10th place
None were relegated. Yes, as of right now (though perhaps not by the time you read this), Everton are in 20th place, five points from safety. That’s within the range of “shit happens”, and I wouldn’t be astonished if they went down, but I’d definitely back the Blues… wait, let’s rephrase that… I’d definitely back Dyche’s side to stay up right now over Burnley, Sheffield United, Luton and even Bournemouth. I’d be absolutely bricking it were I an Everton supporter, granted, but my head says they’ll be fine.
Keep reading for my thoughts on what this means off the pitch, the wider impact of these rulings and the looming situations at Manchester City and Chelsea.