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I mentioned on the Discord server (join us if you’re a paid subscriber!) this week that I’m doing another mailbag, which I am. But that was when I thought this would be a quiet news week. Instead… everything happened, so I’m writing about some of it.
If you’re a paid subscriber and you’d like to leave a question for the mailbag, either reply to this email, leave a comment on this post, or ask in the Discord server. And I’m sure I’ll also write about whatever happens in the Champions League final. With that out of the way, onto the football stuff.
Messi chooses Inter Miami
The greatest player in the history of European club football is leaving for the United States.
Some might argue Cristiano Ronaldo deserves that title, but I don’t think it’s in much doubt. John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times (a man who got too good at football data vis that he had to start covering things that actually matter) put together some nice graphs on this. Ronaldo might be ahead on pure goals, but strip out penalties and the gap is eliminated. Then add in assists and Messi coasts by. Of course, there’s more to football than pure goals and assists, but I think it’s pretty uncontroversial to say Messi offers much more as a playmaker than his main rival ever did.
It’s still reasonable to ask whether he should’ve stuck around to consolidate his lead. Ronaldo holds the record for most goals scored in the Champions League, 11 ahead of Messi. A two-year contract at Barcelona or another “superclub” could’ve seen Messi close that gap. As it is, Ronaldo superfans can still hang onto that record.
Messi didn’t seem to consider any European club other than Barcelona. “I had offers from another European team, but I didn’t even consider it because my idea in Europe was only to return to Barcelona”, he explained. “After winning the World Cup and not being able to join Barcelona, it was time to go to MLS and live football from another perspective, enjoying more my daily life”. He was ready to leave Europe, and it seems only his love for Barça could’ve changed his mind.
It might hurt right now, but I honestly think this is a blessing in disguise for Barcelona. I do believe Messi would’ve accepted a significantly lower salary at the Camp No… I mean, Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys than elsewhere. But we’d still be talking about a very significant outlay at a time when they need to bring financial discipline. Barça have spent too much time looking backwards and embracing nostalgia. It’s time for the future. Tomorrow doesn’t belong to Messi.
Messi also turned down a reported €1 billion (£850m; $1.07 billion) over two years to move to Al Hilal in the Saudi Pro League. The internet says Messi’s net worth is around $600m (£475m, €560m), so turning this down was not a small deal. Al Hilal’s new owners, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, were extremely confident they had the deal done. James Benge of CBS Sports reported that “Al Hilal had jets waiting in Paris for Messi and Barcelona for his father Jorge, ready to whisk him off to Riyadh”. Messi has strong ties to Saudi Arabia as a tourism ambassador, but this may now be under threat. Benge reports that “there are doubts now as to whether that arrangement will continue given his very public snubbing of the chance to live in Riyadh for the next two years”. Which checks out. You’re not doing a good job promoting tourism in a place if it’s widely known you wouldn’t want to live there.
Saudi Arabia will keep throwing money at the problem until they’re achieving their aims with the Pro League. They’re gonna be fine.
Messi chose what he and his family would enjoy over the money. That’s wonderful. He would’ve probably had to sign up in support of Saudi Arabia’s 2030 World Cup bid, which is rivalling Argentina’s own bid alongside Uruguay, Chile and Paraguay. If this was a factor, he chose love and respect within his own country over the money. Again, that’s an admirable choice.
But since we’ve all talked a lot about human rights issues in the Middle East relating to football, let’s talk about where he’s going. Under Governor Ron DeSantis, the state of Florida has taken a hard turn towards many of the exact same qualities we criticise Saudi Arabia for. The so-called “Don’t Say Gay” law bans discussing sexual orientation and gender identity across schools, while other laws seek to ban gender-affirming care. The climate in Florida has become incredibly hostile, and I would not feel safe setting foot in the state right now as a trans person. Messi might not have chosen Saudi Arabia, but that doesn’t mean everything is sunshine and rainbows in the world of football and politics.
Bellingham heads to Real Madrid
After a transfer saga stretching back a year, we have a winner. Liverpool and Manchester City were both interested and, presumably, other clubs made preliminary inquiries, but he’s going to the Santiago Bernabéu.
Man City were definitely interested, but it never seemed like Bellingham fancied a move to the Etihad. Liverpool certainly came closer, with many sources claiming he very much wanted to go to Anfield. But then the saga took a turn depending on who you ask. English journalists claim Liverpool were in pole position but decided they could not afford him. Spanish journalists insist Bellingham made the choice to favour Madrid. We’ll probably never know the truth here, but regardless of how it happened, the deal is all but done.
Here’s the question: how much of Real Madrid’s success over the last decade has been about simply having the best players, and how much has it been about these specific players? Real Madrid didn’t need a highly structured plan in possession because their midfielders were so good on the ball to find those passes anyway. Is it just about having the best, or is it about the qualities of Luka Modrić and Toni Kroos specifically? Can you run it back with a new generation of super-talented players, or will it come up short against more heavily coached superclubs?
Kroos and Modrić only started 14 league matches together this season, so the transition has begun, though they were overwhelmingly favoured in the big games. Bellingham will obviously accelerate this move away from the pair. In his current state, Bellingham is best as the most advanced of a midfield three, showing close control in small spaces but explosiveness getting into the box in big spaces. That’s not really either Modrić or Kroos, so we might see him taught to rein in his attacking instincts and control the game from deeper. It will take time, but Bellingham has the raw tools at age 19 to fit whatever midfield structure Madrid need.
Liverpool sign Mac Allister
The midfield reboot begins. Liverpool have got their first man through the door, and while it’s not Bellingham, they should be pretty happy with Alexis Mac Allister. The Reds’ main problem might have been defensive, but it was a “back-to-front” problem. The attackers weren’t pressing as much, which meant the midfield had more work to do right when they couldn’t run anymore, which in turn put even more pressure on the defence.
It wasn’t enough to make the Champions League, but Liverpool really did improve down the stretch, for two main reasons in my view. The first was about the attackers. Luis Díaz and Diogo Jota were fit, while Cody Gakpo took a month or two to adapt to the team. These players are much more aggressive pressers than Darwin Núñez and an ageing Roberto Firmino, which brought better control and set the tone from the front. The other factor was tactical, having Trent Alexander-Arnold move into midfield while Andy Robertson stayed back, meaning Liverpool were constantly switching between a conventional 4-3-3 and the classic “W-M” shape. It meant Fabinho had less space to cover with Alexander-Arnold supporting him, and the defence was more stable with Robertson staying back. The central midfielders, in turn, had a bit more freedom to push forward and get involved in the attack.
Mac Allister is obviously coming in for one of those central midfield roles. Towards the end of the season, it was usually Jordan Henderson as the slightly more reserved of the two, while Curtis Jones would really push forward. Mac Allister makes sense as the Henderson replacement. He should offer some attacking involvement while still providing control and stability. It’s not the “fix” for the team, but it’s a good start. He’s a high-floor, low ceiling sort of signing. He won’t transform the team like Bellingham might have, but I think it’s unlikely this signing just fails.
Spurs hire Postecoglou
Daniel Levy has a long reputation of hiring the opposite of the last manager. Sophisticated European Juande Ramos was replaced by brash Englishman Harry Redknapp, whose very straightforward methods were in turn replaced by Andre Villas-Boas’ more complex tactics. Straightforward “go out and express yourselves” merchant Tim Sherwood was followed by a progressive coach in Mauricio Pochettino, whose nice football was followed by a “serial winner” in José Mourinho. After the weird Nuno interlude, Levy has reverted back to this formula, sacking the experienced Antonio Conte and his dull football, and bringing in Ange Postecoglou, who’s never worked at this level but promises lots of pretty passing patterns.
Postecoglou is obviously more of a Pochettino than a Mourinho. I don’t watch much of any of the leagues he’s worked in, but I’ve heard enough from the right people who have to be convinced he really is a very good coach. If he fails at Tottenham, it won’t be because his tactical ideas weren’t good enough. I don’t know that this will work, but I’d be cautiously excited if I were a Spurs fan.
The risks are pretty obvious: that the players don’t buy into what he’s doing, and that his ideas take too long for Levy to wait. I don’t know what the Spurs dressing room will think of him, but he will have to work harder to win them over than a more established name might. We saw how Graham Potter struggled with this, and he had been working in the Premier League. Postecoglou also demands time to work on his system, so he’ll need to show the players they can trust him.
The “project” is going to take time, meaning Spurs and Levy need to be patient with it. If Harry Kane leaves the club this summer, there’s almost no chance Tottenham are good next season regardless of what the manager does. They’re also swimming against a tougher financial tide, with Newcastle joining the list of teams richer than Spurs. I would not be optimistic about Tottenham in the long run, but I like the idea of Postecoglou, so that’s at least a start.
Thanks for reading!
Hot take: Messi being so good at goalscoring actually weakened his GOAT status.
No, wait, hear me out.
Being the GOAT (not a fan of the term, but I’m on mobile, sorry) was never measured by goals. Who are widely considered to be some of the greatest of all time? Pelé, Maradona, Cruyff, Zidane, Beckenbauer... only from that (not comprehensive) list scored a lot of goals. The list of greatest players and the list of top goalscorers do not match.
But with Messi and Ronaldo, suddenly we had two all-time players at the same time scoring at roughly the same rate. And so, on a wider level, it became a simple comparison: who’s got more goals? And that framing ignores Messi’s greatness in other ways, like assists, or that he’s a far, far more efficient finisher than Ronaldo.
The same way we appreciate Maradona for more than pure goalscoring, in a strange way, I feel like if Messi scored less than Ronaldo his all-around game would be appreciated more. But because there’s an easy rivalry around the most prominent metric in the sport, Messi got dragged into a GOAT fight he never should have had to be in.
If you were ETH, what 2 signings will you absolutely prioritize?