Can Arsenal really compete at the top?

They came close last year. Flash in the pan, or going for the big time?

Stats are from FBRef unless stated otherwise.

I’m not completely sure what Arsenal’s target is this season.

Since Arsène Wenger retired, the core aim at the start of the season has always been to finish in the top four. After coming up short for several seasons, Arsenal smashed that target last year, not just finishing second but running Manchester City heartbreakingly close for the title. So what’s expected now? Is top four still enough, or should we be demanding more of this team?

Improvement is rarely linear. In hindsight, you can draw a straight line from where Arsenal were when Mikel Arteta to the present day and point to how much better they’ve become. Back-to-back eighth-placed finishes made it easy to question the Arteta project, especially when the expected goals numbers weren’t much better than the actual results. Nevertheless, they persisted. Arteta stuck to his ideas while the club backed him in the transfer market. The team really started to improve over the 2021-22 season, coming close to a top-four place, before it all came together last year and Arsenal looked the real deal.

We can see now that the players he inherited did not fit Arteta’s strong ideas. Of the eleven most used players in the 20/21 season, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Magalhães are the only two still at the club. Granit Xhaka in fairness did contribute significantly last season, but otherwise you’re looking at long-forgotten names like Nicolas Pépé, Bernd Leno and Rob Holding. Arsenal could’ve easily looked at results and concluded Arteta was not the right man for the job. Instead, they recognised the good work he was doing and signed the players he needed to turn things around.

It’s not exactly rocket science to say that better players help a team win more football matches. But at the same time, turning things around after 18 months of bad results is really fucking hard. Players typically lose interest in methods that don’t lead to wins straight away. Every prevailing force at a football club is working towards short-termism and concentrating on immediate results. If you can go through a poor first year and a half then still turn it around, you’re probably an exceptionally good football manager.

But you don’t get recognised for being an exceptionally good football manager by finishing second. Like it or not, people view this sport through a very binary lens of success and failure. Instead, the risk is that Arteta’s Arsenal become consigned to history in around the same spot as Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham. I still think Pochettino did an outstanding job at Spurs, building the best team that club has seen in a generation and coming within a Moussa Sissoko brain fart of winning the Champions League. But football fans are a fickle bunch, and every time I bring up Pochettino’s name on Twitter, my mentions are full of people who insist he’s actually no good because he didn’t win anything. Yes, Arteta won the FA Cup in 2020, but he’s probably heading for this (wrong) reputation unless he wins either the Premier League or the Champions League.

Arsenal really have been good this season. In the seven Premier League games so far, the Gunners have an expected goal difference of +8.4. The identical fixtures last season delivered an xG difference of +7.2. This isn’t a perfect measure, and it’s not a huge difference, but there are no signs so far of a drop-off at the Emirates. Yes, they lost to RC Lens in the Champions League this week, but I didn’t think it was a hugely concerning match. Arsenal were pretty good throughout, and Lens didn’t produce much outside of the two goals. The first was a classic case of a new goalkeeper learning a different system. David Raya attempts an ambitious chipped pass across to Takehiro Tomiyasu, but the defender isn’t really expecting it, which allows Lens to win the ball back when Arsenal are not ready to defend a fast transition. I don’t think it happens when Raya is more familiar with his teammates.

The second goal was worse. The three players caught on the left side – Fábio Vieira, Kai Havertz and Oleksandr Zinchenko – get played through far too easily and open up the entire flank for Lens to play in a well-placed cross. Zinchenko was very good last season, but a creative full back like him will always need protecting to an extent. Leandro Trossard was supposed to be in Vieira’s position, and perhaps he would’ve done enough to stop this happening, but the two wingers got briefly caught on opposite sides of the pitch, which caused this problem. If Saka had been fit enough to stay on the pitch, and got caught in the same situation as his replacement Vieira, maybe it’s also a different story. I don’t think it’s a huge concern, but it does suggest Arsenal could be a little thin at times.

One area where they certainly aren’t thin is in goal. Arteta can say that he doesn’t have a number one all he wants, but when one goalkeeper is starting every game that isn’t sponsored by a Thai energy drink brand, you have a number one and a number two. Maybe Raya will get dropped now after arguably making a mistake against Lens, but I don’t think it’s likely. From the fairly limited post-shot xG data we have publicly available, Raya seems to be a somewhat better shot-stopper than Aaron Ramsdale. With his feet, meanwhile, StatsBomb’s fancy new model claims he’s a somewhat better passer. If he keeps that up, it’s hard to see Ramsdale forcing his way back into the team.

What makes life easier for Raya coming into a new team is that Arsenal have one of the most settled defences in the Premier League. No one disputes that Ben White, Gabriel, William Saliba and Zinchenko are the first choice back four. They’ve really come to make sense as a unit. White is comfortable becoming a third centre back when Zinchenko pushes up, but he’s also surprisingly useful going forward himself. All four players look comfortable in a high line. We saw the problem at the end of last season when Saliba picked up an injury and Arsenal didn’t have the players to replace him. Jurrien Timber, comfortable across the back four, was obviously signed to ease that burden. But the Dutchman got a stroke of truly awful luck and he’s expected to miss the entire season through injury. Arsenal do have flexible defenders. White can easily move inside to his “natural” position at centre back, while Tomiyasu can fill in at various positions, but that’s just five proven options in the squad for four positions. Perhaps I’m being harsh on Jakub Kiwior, who Arsenal fans seem to like, but he’s 23 years old and didn’t hit 500 Premier League minutes last year. If Arsenal want to challenge for the title, they need to stay clear of more defensive injuries.

Just in front of them, Declan Rice has quickly established himself as the first-choice defensive midfielder. Some people have been a little surprised that he’s playing a deeper role than he did at West Ham, but I always thought this would be his best position at a big club. As the Hammers’ best player, David Moyes wanted to get him involved in the game as much as possible. That meant a box-to-box role, with Rice’s ball carrying from deep a key part of West Ham’s build-up play. I’m not saying he’s a slouch, but at Arsenal, he typically has five players in front of him who can offer more quality on the ball than him. That means sitting deeper and playing it safe. He’s making about 35% fewer progressive carries per 90. But I don’t think this is a problem at all when he’s outstanding at regaining possession and protecting the back line. That’s the position he’s played brilliantly with England for about four years now. People sometimes wonder why Harry Maguire can look fairly reliable for the national team while he’s a calamity for Manchester United. I think a big part of it is just “Declan Rice”.

Zinchenko will typically move next to Rice and form a double pivot, creating room for the two other midfielders to push up and become number tens. We all know Martin Ødegaard is superb at this and has become arguably the central hub in how Arsenal create chances. The other spot has been a little bit muddier. Kai Havertz was signed to replace Granit Xhaka this summer and hasn’t earned rave reviews so far. People are still discoursing Havertz as though he’s a striker, so let’s focus on how he compares to Xhaka last season. He’s almost identical in terms of expected goals and assists, but that’s actually disappointing. He’s pushing up higher than Xhaka, taking fewer touches but more of them in the opponent’s box. That in turn means he’s less involved in the buildup phase, taking 28% fewer passes and, crucially, 29% fewer progressive passes. He’s not a striker in this system, but it seems as though he still thinks like one. I could be wrong, but this seems like more of a difference in individuals than something Arteta has asked for. Havertz might need to think more about his positioning and where he should be receiving the ball to really pop in this Arsenal team.

Buying Leandro Trossard last January meant Arsenal can rotate him with Gabriel Martinelli on the left flank pretty easily. If only the same were true on the right. Saka picked up a knock midweek which doesn’t seem to be serious, which is a relief because Arsenal would be in some trouble if he missed an extended period. As much as I like Trossard, I do wonder if they would’ve been better off signing an attacker comfortable playing across the front three to rotate easily. Otherwise, Saka is playing every game he can be loosely called “fit” for. If his left-footedness is crucial, perhaps move Havertz or Ødegaard out to that flank, with Vieira coming into the team? Some creative thinking is needed.

Upfront, I still like Gabriel Jesus even if his limitations are obvious. Over a very large sample size now, he scores about four goals for every five expected goals he takes. But he nonetheless links well, presses well, and continues to get into good positions. “Hard worker who lacks a little composure” doesn’t fit our stereotype of Brazilian strikers. Nketiah is slightly different, in that he’s a bit more direct and a better dribbler, but less natural with his back to goal. I don’t think it’s controversial to say Arsenal have good if not elite options here.

It’s important to stress that Arsenal are ahead of schedule. They’re the second-youngest team in the league (weighted by minutes played) at an average age of 24.9. All of their first-choice starters are under 27. This is a side built to peak in a couple more years. With that in mind, I wouldn’t panic too much if this year is a sideways step. Everything is moving in the right direction at the Emirates and these players should still get better. By far the biggest concern I would have is squad depth. We saw how defensive injuries really killed the title challenge last season, to the point that Arsenal might have lifted the trophy if everyone stayed fit. This is a really strong core regardless of the bench. If things break right for Arsenal, they can absolutely be in contention for the title. If things don’t break right, then it’s obviously disappointing, but the fundamentals at the club are still strong enough that they’ll be back. This Arsenal team is really good and trending the right way. Just enjoy it.