Ok, another shorter two game day, and we’re up to four matches tomorrow. Let’s get stuck in.
Croatia 1-1 Italy
Sometimes it’s worth sticking around just for the end.
Croatia really did have one good minute out of 90. We need to make a nerdy point about the race charts here: if Luka Modrić had simply scored the penalty, Croatia would’ve registered 0.74 xG and the sequence would’ve ended. As it was, Modrić missed and Croatia ended up with a whole spell of possession before scoring anyway. If Modrić had done his job the first time, Croatia would have a lower xG despite the same scoreline.
In other words, Croatia really did put together one good bit of football. Beyond that, they took three shots. This was bad. Italy looked the better side throughout, but in that Italian way where it doesn’t feel like they’re trying that hard to score a goal. As much as I’m one of those insufferable cosmopolitan progressives, even I do enjoy seeing the more distinct national differences we get at international tournaments compared to club football. Italy rarely try to play brilliant football unless they have to.
Fortunately, they had to once Croatia went a goal up. Luciano Spalletti made aggressive changes, bringing on a whole range of fresh attacking options. It was Mattia Zaccagni who got the job done with a very nice curling shot, but they really did just throw the kitchen sink at it. They got away with playing football for the shortest possible time in order to get the job done.
Italy can be happy with 4 points and a second placed finish. I doubt it’s lost on Italians that way back in Euro 2004, the Azzurri finished the group on five points but only came third (which back then meant getting knocked out). They’re playing Switzerland in Berlin on Saturday, for which they are the favourites, but not by an overwhelming margin. Italy should get it done, but I’m not sure I see the huge gap in quality between the two countries we might traditionally expect.
As for Croatia, yeah, they need to figure out what the next generation looks like. They’re still technically in the tournament, but will almost certainly be out by the end of the week. Onwards and upwards.
Albania 0-1 Spain
What is the purpose of some of these games?