Manchester City hit the reset button

This year is a bust. Time to start the next cycle.

Hi, I think I should apologise for this newsletter taking so long. It’s not really an excuse, it should’ve come out anyway, but I feel like I broke down crying about three times in the past week because my stupid ADHD brain just would not focus and get this done. I’ve been on a couple of different stimulant medications for this over the last few months but, to be honest, I suspect stimulants aren’t the right solution for me, and might actually be making the problem worse. Anyway, enough oversharing about my mental health, here’s the newsletter.

Manchester City spent a lot of money in January.

Omar Marmoush, Vitor Reis, Abdukodir Khusanov and Nico González combined cost a reported £172 million (about $215m or €207m) in transfer fees. They also handed Erling Haaland a new 9.5 (nine point five!) year contract, and I can’t imagine his wage demands were low. They went for it.

But here’s the thing: very little of that money will actually make them better this season. Marmoush certainly has the quality to impact this team straight away, but the others are going to take more time. They didn’t even address the obvious defensive midfield issue. This is City saying “Yes, we messed up this season and it hasn’t worked out, but we’re going to be back”. With one of the oldest average ages in the Premier League, they know they need a refresh. The cycle is restarting.

City haven’t had to think in cycles before, but that’s the privilege of being at the top. Everyone else is supposed to have to do this. Liverpool and Arsenal have had poor patches where they needed to clear out older players and rebuild the side. Chelsea are trying to build a fresh new team right now, while Manchester United clearly need to start with that. Pep Guardiola signed a new two-year contract, and that seems a fair timeline here. City should aim to be back at their very best in the 2026-27 season. Let’s look at how they might do that.

Man City were not great in the first leg against Real Madrid but, more importantly, they struggled in exactly the ways you would’ve expected them to struggle before kick-off (they were a million times better against Newcastle, but it does get a little easier when three of your first five shots go in the net). Part of that is obviously Real Madrid. Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Junior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are surely the best group of forwards in the world at exploiting fast transitions and attacking into space. That kind of attack, though, is exactly the sort that’s been causing City such problems this season. Guardiola started five nominal centre backs (Nathan Aké and Rúben Dias in those actual roles, Joško Gvardiol and Manuel Akanji as full backs, then John Stones in midfield), yet all three goals they conceded featured poor moments of “traditional defending”. City’s defenders were poor at tracking their runners and winning aerial duels, which are the kind of old-fashioned skills people complain have been lost in favour of passing out from the back.

But these players were all at City last season, when such mistakes weren’t happening. None of them are old enough to complain that they’ve lost a step. City had order last season. Rodri, yes, was decisive here, but so was Julián Alvarez, while Jérémy Doku and Phil Foden had more clearly defined roles without the ball. They have less energetic pressers this season in a poorer structure to do it. Guardiola has always been very good at protecting his centre backs with an excellent pressing system. A lot of defenders over the years have played for Guardiola’s teams and suddenly looked “mistake-free” because they just don’t have as much defending to do as they did for other managers. I think we can safely assume he can coach that again, provided City bring in the right players.

After the spending spree, City now have eight “defenders” in the first-team squad. Four are younger than 24 (Reis, Khusanov, Gvardiol and Rico Lewis), which is now a pretty good place to be. Dias (27), Akanji (29), Aké (29) and Stones (30) aren’t in imminent danger of falling of an age cliff. Kyle Walker was the only veteran at the back, and they’ve successfully moved him on. I think we can say City should now be sorted at the back, even if it takes the new signings some time to adapt. Lewis is the only player in the bunch who could not play at centre back, which makes it pretty clear that Guardiola isn’t changing his approach from the last couple of seasons. City, it looks like, will keep playing centre backs at full back. Try not to get too excited.

They’re even trying to turn over the midfield. Nico has been playing as the deepest midfielder recently, with Guardiola calling him a “mini-Rodri”. That surprised me a little, because it’s not quite what he seemed to be doing at Porto. He was a bit more dynamic there, sometimes getting involved higher up the pitch. That might be part of the plan. If Nico can play with Rodri next season, while also filling in as a backup when necessary, that kills two birds with one stone. İlkay Gündoğan’s contract runs out this summer and I don’t think City should renew it. Guardiola can rotate Rodri, Nico and Mateo Kovačić for two midfield spots next season, with Matheus Nunes serving as a fourth choice. That should be enough.

City have not, though, found a long-term replacement for Kevin De Bruyne. Well, that’s not quite true. City haven’t found a replacement for last season’s De Bruyne replacement. The structure with Alvarez pushing forward and Foden coming in from the right worked well. They didn’t really replace him in the summer, and I think that’s mattered more than people realise. If we think of City’s shape as a 4-2-3-1, they have seven first team options for the attacking band of three: De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Foden, Savinho, Jack Grealish, Jérémy Doku and Marmoush. You could consider Oscar Bobb and James McAtee viable options. I don’t really need to tell you that’s too many. Guardiola likes a smaller squad, and I think he’ll want to trim his options in the summer.

Right now, Savinho seems to be first choice on the right flank with Marmoush starting on the left. Silva and Foden have both featured a lot this season in various roles, while De Bruyne basically plays as much as his body will allow. Doku has missed a lot of this season through injury, and even considering how much he played last year, it does feel a bit like the team has moved on from him. I think it’s probable that one of Doku or Grealish will leave this summer. At the same time, I still think they would need someone who can fill Alvarez role as a pressing ten who can make runs into the box and fill in for Erling Haaland if needs be. Savinho, Marmoush and Foden should be safe for next season but, as heretical as it might sound, is Silva part of a long term rebuild at age 30? Foden covers a lot of the same skills while being six years his junior. If they can find a younger player to replace him, I think they should do it.

We’re talking about a pretty big undertaking here, and I’m a little… underwhelmed? It’s not bad, exactly. But Guardiola et al had a chance to really reimagine what Man City can be here. The answer seems to be more centre backs playing at full back and more Rodri types in midfield. Guardiola has evolved his approach over and over again. This time, it feels like he’s happy with the last template and wants to recreate it.

I know what you’re thinking. “But Grace”, some of you are screaming, “the 115 charges!” And you’re right. I just don’t know what’s going to happen there. I do know that City are behaving in a way that seems like they think they’re going to win the case. I don’t know anything about what the actual outcome might be, but that’s all we have to go on right now. City think they’re rebuilding for the future, so we should assume that’s what’s on the cards.

This season is a blip right now and it can’t remain so. City did get caught out a little by being too reliant on some veterans, and that’s now having to change. Look, it hasn’t been good this season, but it’s Guardiola and a huge pile of money. It’s probably going to work out again at some point. What can you do.