Mikel's at the wheel
Arsenal are doing it. Can anything go wrong?
Stats are from Opta Analyst unless stated otherwise
To be honest, Arsenal have been “good enough” for a while now.
They led the league for most of the 2022-23 season before falling short of a Manchester City team that was admittedly better than them. The following year, they legitimately played the best football in England, only for City to finish their chances exceptionally well. Last year, they, like other sides, were below their standards, with Liverpool holding it together well enough to get across the line. Across those three seasons, they’ve been “good enough” that random chance could’ve easily broken towards Arsenal winning a league title. It hasn’t. But maybe it is now.
Liverpool, as we all know, have been a mess this year. City still can’t get Rodri fit, much as I continue to believe he will fix all their problems like the second coming of Christ. But Arsenal? It is November, and they have not conceded a goal since September. Things have been breaking their way recently. You have to be the right mix of good and lucky to win the Premier League. So far, Arsenal have been the best and luckiest of England’s elite clubs.
Arsenal have conceded three goals in ten Premier League games. Three in ten.
Chelsea in 2004/05 currently hold the record for the fewest goals conceded across a whole season, with 15. If Arsenal were to maintain their current pace of 0.3 goals against per game, they’d end the season having conceded just eleven times. The expected goals are a little less astounding, at 0.56 xG against per game. If they were to maintain this rate and start conceding as many as expected from here onwards, Arsenal would end the season short of the record with 19 goals against. They would need a little bit of overperformance to break the record, but that’s why it’s a record. That we’re talking about this is a testament to just how good the Gunners are defensively. They’ve had probably the best defence in Europe over the last couple of seasons, and that’s never been as true as this year.
Arsenal have conceded fewer shots than any other side in England’s top flight (75). At the same time, the quality of shots conceded is also the lowest in the division (0.07 xG/shot). They have the best defence in terms of both quality and quantity, which feels vaguely insane. The way it normally works is that if you want to limit the opponents’ chance quality, you defend a little deeper and end up inviting potshots from range against a low block. And if you want to limit the volume of shots conceded, you push up a little higher and press them, but run the risk of high-quality chances on the counter. But Mikel Arteta has apparently solved defending.
Obviously, that does come at a cost. Football, they say, is a short blanket. “If I cover my head, I uncover my feet, and vice versa”. (Everyone in England credits that phrase to Rafa Benítez, but it’s a common concept in Spanish and Portuguese-speaking football cultures. It just wasn’t known over here before Benítez said it in English.) You only have eleven players on the pitch, and you only have so many hours on the training ground. If you want to be the best defensive side in the world, that usually means pushing fewer players forward, playing less expansive football and, well, getting called “boring” by neutrals.
You know the story at this point. Arsenal have scored 18 Premier League goals this season. 10 of those have been from set pieces, plus two penalties (which are set pieces, yes, but it’s a separate skill, come on now). They are ranked 16th in the “open play goals” table. It’s worth saying that some of this is a bit exaggerated by finishing streaks. Arsenal have scored about three goals more than their xG from set pieces (yes, yes, xG might be wrong there, we’ll get to it later) but have underperformed by about three goals in open play. About 57% of Arsenal’s non-penalty xG is coming from open play this season. It’s not as skewed as the real goals scored, but it’s still a big deal. When it comes to open play xG, Arsenal are the eighth-best team in the Premier League.
So here’s what we know about Arsenal:
they have a god-tier defence,
their attack in open play is slightly above midtable,
but it hasn’t mattered because they’ve been so good at set pieces.
Arsenal have been scoring enough goals this season. None of the big clubs have really been prolific by their standards, but if you’re Arteta, you have to assume they will be at some point. Let’s say that Arsenal’s current goalscoring rate is the bare minimum needed to get this team across the line. More would be nice, duh. But can they keep scoring like this from set plays? Can the open play attack become more fluid?
It’s really hard from the outside to know why the Gunners are scoring so many goals from set pieces and if they can keep it up. The xG models we have are going to be more reliable from open play. Set pieces often come from a lot of “blind spots”, where the models can’t quite see critical information about the chance it’s putting a number on. At the same time, a lot of high-xG shots from set pieces come from weird situations that aren’t totally repeatable. The models we have just aren’t as useful here.
So let’s apply some outside context. Arsenal’s set piece coach Nicolas Jover was hired in the summer of 2021, clearly doing excellent work ever since. But in Jover’s four previous seasons, Arsenal have fairly consistently scored just under a goal every other game from (non-penalty) set pieces. Last year was bang on that trend with 0.45 set piece goals per game (per Sky Sports). This year, it’s 0.9 per game. I can accept he’s doing brilliant work. I can accept Arsenal have tweaked something this season to improve things further. I’m not quite sure they’re twice as good at set pieces as they were last season.
You can disagree but this is my current view: they might win it anyway, to win the title, Arsenal need to at least play like a top four side when attacking in open play.
The easiest way that happens is if things change in the one area Arsenal haven’t been lucky: injuries. We have a few seasons now of consistent injury issues, so I’m open to the idea that Arteta and his staff are partly responsible here. But when your two most consistent attacking players over the last few years have been Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard, they need to stay fit somehow. Saka hasn’t looked his best recently, but I’m open to the idea that he’s been short of his physical peak. Obviously, the hope is that he’ll play his way back into it, so we’ll see. Ødegaard is currently out injured, which isn’t new.
There’s probably an argument that Arteta has decided to focus on set pieces to grind through games knowing the attack isn’t going to be firing on all cylinders. Saka and Ødegaard have only started one game together since August, and it was one where the Norwegian only managed half an hour before getting injured. Yes, the club signed capable deputies in Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke, but we’re not talking about players of the same callibre here. If Saka and Ødegaard stay fit for most of the season, Arsenal should have a very good attack. But that’s a big if.
The short blanket metaphor is true from the manager’s perspective. Arteta actually used it himself last year. But better players make the blanket longer. If your centre backs aren’t reliable, say, you might have to play more conservatively to protect them. Sign better defenders and you can push up more. On the other hand, if you have brilliant individual attackers, you might not have to collectively throw so many players forward to score a goal, meaning you can better protect the defence.
If Arsenal get their best attackers fit, or they keep scoring so many goals from set pieces, then they can maintain this style that prioritises having the best defence in the world. If that doesn’t happen, Arteta might need to really think about pulling the short blanket up a little bit. I’ll be clear on this: Arsenal are the title favourites right now for a reason. I think they’ve clearly got a better shot at it than anyone else (yes, I know I said City were my pick a few weeks ago, but things change fast!) Nonetheless, these are the choices that define whether Arteta gets his team over the line or not. We’ll see in due course if he chooses right.