Predictions for 2025, and how I did last year
What surprises are in store?
Data is from FBRef unless stated otherwise
Ok, here we are again! Let’s start by reviewing what I predicted this time last year:
1. Manchester City will win the Premier League
Yep! I’m pretty happy with what I said overall on this one:
“I don’t think Man City are as good as last season, and I only just went for them this time last year. But the record is clear, and I don’t think many would pick a different team here. You’d just trust them to be more complete than Liverpool or Arsenal down the stretch.
Liverpool currently have the best xG difference in the Premier League, driven heavily by a supernova attack making up for a slightly weaker defence. That makes them more high variance, and there are worlds in which they steamroll opponents for the rest of the season to win the title, but also worlds in which defensive frailties cause the team to fall apart. Arsenal are much more solid at the back, but I still think they’re an injury or two away from that strength declining significantly. City are the goldilocks option right now, and my clear favourites.”
Man City weren’t as good as 2022/23. I absolutely did not call their collapse this season, but there were minor signs they weren’t refreshing the squad as well as they could do. Liverpool were a little too flaky in Jürgen Klopp’s last season. And as we’ve seen more recently, Arsenal were an injury or two away from that strength declining significantly. Great work by Grace Robertson.
2. Real Madrid will win La Liga
You’ve forgotten this one was even a question, or that Girona were in the hunt. This was an easy call.
3. Bayern Munich will win the Bundesliga
So… about those “easy calls”…
“Yeah. They’re currently four points behind Bayer Leverkusen with a game in hand. They’ll make up the gap. You know it and I know it.”
We certainly did not know it. At least I’m not alone in getting this wrong.
4. Inter will win Serie A
Yes.
5. The Champions League is anyone’s guess, though City are the favourites
I had concerns about Real Madrid’s system without a conventional striker, but I should’ve realised it was particularly well suited to playing in transition in the Champions League knockout stage. So it goes.
5. Manchester United will sack Erik ten Hag
Yep! It just took longer than I expected:
“But once the top team is in place, they’re going to want their own man. Erik ten Hag would have to do spectacularly well from now until the end of the season to change minds. Are you betting on him doing that? I’m not.”
He did not do spectacularly well, but they kept him anyway. You won’t believe what happened next!
6. …and his replacement will be out of nowhere
“Ratcliffe and his people have, I suspect, a belief they’re more clever than everyone else. We’ve seen it with a few new owners over the years, most recently at Chelsea. They’re going to think they can outsmart the market for managers by hiring an exciting up-and-comer. Think Brendan Rodgers at Liverpool or Graham Potter at Chelsea. It’ll be an innovative younger coach with no real experience at a club this size. Will it work? That’s anyone’s guess.”
A few weeks after I published this, United hired Omar Berrada as Chief Executive. I hadn’t anticipated they’d give a more conventional football thinker a position of real power (especially now that Dan Ashworth is out the door), so they hired the most hyped fresh face around.
7. Mohamed Salah will leave Liverpool
Oof. That’s a big miss. I had four reasons this time:
“1. Mohamed Salah, comfortably Liverpool’s highest earner, will have just a year left on his contract by this summer”
That’s still true!
“2. He will be 32 years old and, considering how hard he had to negotiate to get his current deal, I don’t think he can assume a similar contract taking him into his mid-30s at Anfield will be forthcoming”
We don’t know exactly what he’s been offered, but this feels like a tension at play. Liverpool seem hesitant to offer a longer deal.
“3. Saudi Pro League clubs are almost certainly still interested in spending a lot of money to get him”
That seems a little bit less true right now. This past summer, the biggest Saudi Pro League arrivals were players like Moussa Diaby, João Cancelo, Ivan Toney, Houssem Aouar and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. I like all of those players, but they’re not top tier marquee signings like Salah would be.
“4. Liverpool’s owners, Fenway Sports Group, have gone on and on about player ages over the years, and their management of the Boston Red Sox shows they’re not afraid to disgruntle fans by doing things that make financial sense, if not sporting sense.”
Also true! I think my misread here was about Saudi Arabia. There doesn’t seem to be quite as much money being thrown around right now compared to 18 months ago, and Salah seems more motivated to stay in Europe than I expected. It’s anyone’s market for him this summer, of course.
8. …prompting a wider reset at the club
We did get a wider reset at the club! It’s just not the one I expected.
“Klopp’s going to have to really rethink the whole structure of the attack to make this transition work. And that’s before we consider that Liverpool don’t have a permanent sporting director in place right now. It’ll take a year or so to build the next side. Better win something big this season then, lads.”
I got it backwards: it’s pretty much the same squad, but the manager and senior staff have changed. Klopp out; Arne Slot, Richard Hughes and Michael Edwards in. We’ll see what happens with the contract issues, but it’s obviously going well in the short term.
9. Kylian Mbappé will stay at PSG
Welp.
“I’m going to assume he’s staying at PSG until he’s holding up another shirt. He knows that flirting with Real Madrid and moaning about how much he hates it at the Parc des Princes is the easiest way to get paid by Qatar Sports Investments. So I expect he’ll do it again this year, and PSG will eventually give him what he wants.”
Is the story right now that Middle Eastern investment in European club football is cooling off a bit right now? Or is it that Mbappé just really wanted to go to Madrid this time? Or is it that PSG were just sick of him? Questions, questions.
10. Clubs will find it hard to bring in Western investment
Not sure about that one after The Friedkin Group just bought Everton. I am absolutely not an economist, to be clear, and my attempts at pretending to be one aren’t so accurate.
11. …helping Gulf States gain greater involvement in football
Hmm, not so much? I think this is still happening on balance, but 2024 was a slower year for it.
12. Premier League clubs will fight over financial controls
“This already started with Everton’s points deduction as well as Manchester City and Chelsea’s investigations. Again, looking at the wider financial climate, growth is becoming less valued than real profits. As such, the Premier League club owners who are in it for money would presumably like to see costs come down over the next several years to boost profits.”
Yes, I think this is still true.
“The Labour Party will almost certainly win the election with Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister. As insincere as he can come across when talking about it, Starmer is genuinely an obsessive football fan on the same level as you and I. It wouldn’t shock me if his government made a mission out of reforming English football in the interest of the fans.”
The Football Governance Bill has been strengthened a little bit since Labour won the election, but the trajectory still looks pretty similar.
13. Men’s football will grow less inclusive
“This year’s Rainbow Laces Week was the lowest-key edition of the event I can remember. It was no more than a few rainbow flags and that’s it. At the same time, the Premier League has slashed its funding to LGBTQ+ charity Stonewall. Considering the backlash Jordan Henderson received last summer, I suspect many in football have internalised the lesson that they should shut up about social issues so they can’t be called a hypocrite down the road.
The era of brands embracing (or appropriating, depending on who you ask) socially progressive values is probably coming to an end. People with progressive politics increasingly view the brands as inauthentic and money-grabbing, while right-wingers enjoy stirring up a backlash. Add in the amount of money coming in from countries with what we can politely call different views on issues. As such, I think football will start getting quiet about a lot of causes, and injustices around the game will fall on deaf ears.”
Sadly, I think this is exactly what’s happening.
14. France will win Euro 2024
Bad year for me when it comes to Mbappé.
“But they look really strong. I still think that their 2022 World Cup runners-up were a much better and more balanced side than the 2018 team that went all the way. They’ve got quality across the pitch that’s been playing together long enough to form strong connections. They’re the team to beat.”
Getting to the semi-finals isn’t bad, but they didn’t have that balance at all this time. Lacking Olivier Giroud as a target man made the team much more reliant on counter-attacks, and Ousmane Dembélé just flat-out not playing well meant everything had to come down the left flank. Spain, by comparison, had their balance exactly right and deservedly won the whole thing.
Ok, now let’s get onto this year’s predictions. I got it down to a tight ten this year because… ok, it’s because I could only think of ten…