Seriously, what are Chelsea doing?

What if, hear me out, it somehow works?

Data is from FBRef unless stated otherwise.

When the consortium now called BlueCo led by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital wanted to buy Chelsea in 2022, the narrative was clear. This was a data-driven, analytics-loving ownership group. The word “moneyball” might’ve been thrown around here and there. They were to be more in line with what Fenway Sports Group has tried to do at Liverpool.

“These are smart guys, who don’t just have the money to invest, they get how to use it”, claimed Daniel Finkelstein, now on the Chelsea board of directors, when he announced he was joining the bid. “They understand about data, and they understand about fans […] I want owners who will invest but are also insightful and use modern methods to keep our club on top of the world. I believe Todd Boehly would be just such an owner”.

If you’re familiar with Finkelstein, you probably know him as a Conservative member of the House of Lords and as a political columnist for The Times newspaper. But when he’s not doing that, he’s a lifelong Chelsea fan and noted nerd when it comes to football analytics. Way back in the dark ages of the mid-2000s, Finkelstein was writing a data-driven football column trying to unearth hidden truths about the game. Analysis was provided by none other than Ian Graham, who went on to become Director of Research at Liverpool, and just wrote a book I discussed last week. Right there on the cover, Finkelstein calls How to Win the Premier League “the best book on football I have ever read”. What Graham advocates is, you’d think, exactly what he wanted to see at Stamford Bridge when he threw in his lot with Boehly et al.

I wonder what he must be thinking right now. Chelsea have, on almost every level, done the opposite of what a smart, analytics-driven club was “supposed” to do. After spending big on more established players in BlueCo’s first transfer window, they sacked Thomas Tuchel weeks later and then tried to copy a poster child club wholesale. “Then Chelsea started signing Brighton players and staff”, Graham wrote in his book. “Marc Cucurella, Robert Sánchez and Moisés Caicedo all joined Chelsea, each realising huge transfer profits for Brighton. Their manager Graham Potter and his coaching staff were also hired by Chelsea, with Brighton receiving £21.5 million in compensation. Chelsea did not get much value for money: Potter only managed Chelsea for 31 games before being sacked.”