What do Liverpool do with Darwin Núñez?

Slot's Reds have started well, with Núñez on the bench. Where does he go from here?

Stats are from FBRef unless stated otherwise

Nothing is ever predictable with Darwin Núñez.

He first crossed paths with Liverpool in early 2022, when his Benfica side faced the Reds in the Champions League. He scored in both legs and looked a menace throughout. Jürgen Klopp was in love from that point on. You can imagine him watching footage of Benfica games to prepare for the tie, watching Núñez’ erratic moments of brilliance and stupidity, and thinking “I can fix him”. He knew exactly the attacker he wanted to add to Liverpool’s forward line that summer.

Not everyone agreed. “Núñez was very much a Klopp signing”, wrote Paul Joyce, one of the most well-connected journalists when it comes to Liverpool. “Liverpool’s recruitment think-tank preferred Christopher Nkunku, then of RB Leipzig”. Disagreement is not unique behind the scenes at Liverpool. It seems to be a culture Fenway Sports Group actively look to cultivate, but still, it’s worth pointing this out. “Núñez played brilliantly against Liverpool and that has an effect on people”, said Ian Graham, Liverpool’s then director of research.

“The difficulty with Núñez was that he was a very different type of player to Firmino. My questions were: ‘Are we going to change our style or formation for him?’ Is he a good enough player that it might be worth making those changes?’. It was something we had resisted for many years.

“We went through the same data process for Núñez as with other players. I wanted to make sure that everyone knew what a big change it would be with Núñez. It was more, ‘Are we sure we’re going to make the best use of him?’. […] I wouldn’t say that the data said no to Núñez. It’s more ‘if we sign this player we have to understand this is the role we’ve seen him be effective in and is there currently a slot for him in our squad?’. And if you’re spending a large amount of money on a player then he has to start.

“The worst thing you can do is buy a squad player and spend money that could be out there on the pitch.”

Former sporting director Michael Edwards had left the club at this point (or was at least packing his things), with his assistant-turned-replacement Julian Ward taking over. That shifted the balance of power at least a little bit. If Edwards was still around, it’s at least possible he’d have the clout to say no to Núñez, but Ward wasn’t realistically winning that battle with Klopp. The manager got his player, even if the recruitment team weren’t convinced. The proper football men beat the nerds on this one.

Yet flash forward two years and data nerds are some of the main people vocally defending Núñez against a footballing public who decided he’s not up to it.

Since arriving at Liverpool, Núñez has played 3776 minutes in the Premier League. In that time, he’s taken 192 shots worth 28 xG and scored 20 goals. He’s “expected” to be converting his chances at a rate of about 14.6%, but the ball is only going in the net 10.4% of the time. Eight extra goals over the last two seasons could’ve meaningfully moved the needle for Liverpool. We’re at a point where this is statistically significant, though I still think most fans overestimate how predictive bad finishing can be. I’d bet on him scoring more than 20 goals over his next 28 xG though, yes, it may well be less than 28.

He puts up ludicrously big numbers in the data. Only eight players in Europe’s top five leagues last season averaged at least 0.9 expected goals and assists per 90 (at least 1500 minutes played). The previous year, only six players managed it. Just two individuals pulled it off both years. One of those players was Erling Haaland. The other was Núñez. Every sequence he’s involved in feels like it ends in a shot for someone. Defenders just don’t know how to handle his unpredictability. Despite in theory competing for the limelight, he’s formed an almost telepathic relationship with Mohamed Salah on the pitch. He might frustrate, but he’s electric.

But the finishing isn’t really the whole issue. It’s about fitting him into a cohesive tactical system. Klopp did get Núñez to press as needed. As per The Transfer Flow, Núñez was in the 97th percentile last season for StatsBomb’s possession-adjusted pressures metric. He was working hard. That wasn’t the case when Núñez first arrived, but the Uruguayan clearly did improve in that regard. But with the ball, he could be manic. He’d drift out wide and interchange with other players, which was acceptable in Klopp’s narrow and fluid front three.

That was then. I don’t think Arne Slot is a better football manager than Klopp. We’ve only seen three games and things could absolutely go very wrong from here. That’s the nature of the beast. But I do think he’s bringing a fresh impetus to Liverpool. He’s making choices and introducing ideas that are just different from anything Klopp did. We haven’t seen a single new signing on the pitch so far (Federico Chiesa will play at some point), but Slot has still freshened things up.

Things just feel a little more structured and positional with the ball right now. It’s more of a 4-2-3-1 than Klopp’s 4-3-3. Left back Andy Robertson is being used more conservatively. We’re talking a very small sample here, but 34% of Robertson’s touches so far are in his own defensive third, a higher share than any season under Klopp. Trent Alexander-Arnold on the right is doing the same, but to a lesser extent, and he’s still being asked to invert into midfield quite a bit of the time. The midfield itself has been more of a double pivot between Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch. We saw Mac Allister sit deeper against Man Utd, but it was the other way round against Ipswich, and I think it will stay fairly flexible there. But in its base mode, it’s a double pivot.

The change in shape means that Mohamed Salah is starting a little wider than in previous seasons. This has been a gradual evolution, but the shape change really cements how much of a creator he’s become. As he’s lost a little bit of pace, Salah has changed his game in really impressive ways to be less of a player who runs in behind and more of an on-ball threat. Dominik Szoboszlai is playing higher up as more of a number ten, and Luis Díaz looks like he’s fully fit to be a threat running in behind from the left. It’s more delineated and more structured.

That leaves the striker. Diogo Jota has been playing there. I’ve felt for years that he’s more of an old-fashioned poacher who just wants to stay around the six-yard box rather than get involved across the rest of the pitch. In that sense, Slot might suit him better than Klopp. Right now, he’s averaging just 22 touches outside the box per 90, down from 38 last season. He does the pressing without the ball which is essential, but in this system, a striker might just need to concentrate on staying in his position and getting in situations to score goals.

Let’s not overstate the differences here. It’s subtle. The players on the pitch are always far more important to winning football matches than the manager, and they haven’t changed. But yes, Liverpool are moving the sliders just a little bit more towards Pep Guardiola’s idea of football. I think this was unavoidable. The Premier League is structured in a way so that there is a small group of rich teams against everyone else. That means that, most weekends, the “superclubs” will be playing a smaller side who would probably take a point. That means teams try to constrict the space available to attack into and, in the broadest strokes, a more constructive, more “positionist” style becomes preferable. I should write a whole article about this. But I do think Liverpool were the exception to this broader trend purely because of Klopp’s personal preferences. With him out the picture, we should see a more positionist approach.

So what does that mean for Núñez? On one hand, he is absolutely a striker. If you can restrict his play to those areas of the pitch, then you have a handful and a nightmare for defenders in the box. But does he want to do that? Can he be coached to stay in his position, to avoid drifting wide to get involved? And do you want him to do that? Can you create a more structured and positionist system around Núñez, in which he does his thing in the box? Would Slot even be interested in that?

Diogo Jota will get injured at some point. Cody Gakpo isn’t that good. Liverpool will need Núñez to deliver at some point this season. What does he do for this team, and how does it work? I still don’t have an answer. I feel strongly that it would be a huge waste if Liverpool can’t integrate him into this side, but I don’t know if they will or not. Either way, it’s never predictable.