What to Expect When You’re Expecting Goals

What does it really “do” as a metric?

Expected goals. You know ‘em, you love ‘em, maybe you hate ‘em. I’m assuming you have a basic grasp of the concept at this point: every shot taken is weighted by several factors, most prominently the location on the pitch, and assigned a monetary value for how often we’d expect such a chance to be scored. It might be “off” by a fair bit on an individual…