World Cup: Day One
South Korea and Mexico turn up, South Africa have a disaster
And we’re away!
These matches were played in Mexico City and Guadalajara. Unlike some of the host cities in this tournament, these are footballing hotbeds. So I was disappointed to see that the atmospheres were, overall, pretty stale. The contingent of travelling Korean fans did make some noise, but otherwise, you could really feel the issue with the high ticket prices. Setting the price so high means that the people at the games are more likely those with a lot of disposable income than the people who most want to be there. Mexico obviously has a very loud and passionate culture of football supporters. But I felt like there weren’t so many of those people in these grounds.
Anyway, onto the actual games. The first half of this will be free and then the second half will be for paid subscribers only. These newsletters are going to run every single matchday. If you want to come along for the ride, I have a special offer running right now, giving you 20% off for a year. That’s £4.80/$6.40/€5.60 a month, or you can save in the long run by getting a whole year for £48/$64/€56.
Mexico 2-0 South Africa
“Low tempo” might be the right phrase here.
Opening games generally aren’t very good. Ecuador’s 2-0 win over Qatar four years ago and Russia’s 5-0 victory against Saudi Arabia in 2018 were pretty comparable to this. There will be better football to come.
As you can see in the expected goals race chart below, it was one way traffic.
Mexico were getting into a slower rhythm of the game to gradually grind South Africa down, but their opponents decided to ruin a perfectly good sufferball strategy through gifting the game to Mexico. Goalkeeper Ronwen Williams plays a poor short pass straight forward to midfielder Yaya Sithole, who has a shocker of a first touch and gifts the ball away on the edge of the box. Érik Lira wins the ball pretty easily and the ball just rolls to Julián Quiñones, who knows exactly what to do.
Every football data analyst I know has said the numbers are clear that passing it short from the goalkeeper is the safer option. I accept this. I do not doubt that the knock-on effects from booting it up the pitch and easily giving away possession are meaningful. “In this house we believe science is real”, etc etc. I know that my stupid ape brain has a bias here and I remember the big errors like this one more than all the times a goalkeeper went long and lost possession. But I still instinctively panic every time a team tries to play it short like this, and that goal will probably replay in my head the next time someone does it.
Mexico did put some pressure on it in the first half before the tempo dipped after the first drinks break and never really recovered. Then, early in the second half, Sithole really ends the game. First of all, South Africa are playing an absolutely ludicrous high line for a team that was applying almost no pressure on Mexico. And still, Sithole manages to be too high. Centre back Nkosinathi Sibisi is too deep at the same time, leaving a weird gap. Or maybe he’s the only sensible one, since the other players look like they’re trying to play an offside trap IN MEXICO’S OWN HALF. I’m starting to sound like Roy Keane here. It’s embarrassing.
Sithole still makes a mess of it afterwards, but it was the terrible defensive structure that put him in a position of having to make a last man challenge with a serious risk of a red card. Mexico were a man up and were always going to find it easy after that.
The second goal was exactly what you’d expect from Raúl Jiménez based on his Premier League career. I always think that old fashioned conventional “penalty box strikers” are more useful at international level, and having him as a presence to put crosses into is great here. South Africa are obviously dreadful, though.
A whole lot of nonsense happened after this point, but it doesn’t really matter because the game was dead. South Africa’s Belgian coach Hugo Broos did an abysmal job. He says he’s retiring after this tournament and, frankly, I’m not sure he should be allowed back in the country after this.
Keep reading for my thoughts on South Korea vs Czech Republic! Subscribe now to get a 20% discount.
South Korea 2-1 Czech Republic
This game was fun.