World Cup Thoughts – Day Seven

Tunisia vs Australia, Poland vs Saudi Arabia, France vs Denmark, Argentina vs Mexico

The schedule continues its trend of having the best games later in the day. That’s great if you’re putting those parts of the newsletter behind a paywall, and I had more to say about them than the first two games. Anyway, let’s get on with it.

Tunisia 0-1 Australia

The Australians I spoke to all told me this team was terrible, and here they are.

Source: Opta Analyst

Turns out that early goal was enough to hang on. I’ll be honest, it’s a good job that the early kick-offs have not been great games, because staying up late to write these articles has meant I’m not at my most focused when those matches are being played. But hey, good win for Australia.

A win against Denmark would definitely see Australia through, while a draw would do as long as Tunisia don’t pull off what would be one of their greatest ever football triumphs by beating their colonisers. FiveThirtyEight sees it as little more than a coin flip between Australia and Denmark to go through, and believes it would take a miracle for Tunisia. I think it’s a little better than that from a Tunisian perspective, as France can now play a weakened team. It’s heading for a big showdown on Wednesday.

Poland 2-0 Saudi Arabia

Poland were quite poor against Saudi Arabia, except when they weren’t. I don’t know if that makes sense outside my own head, but that was the game.

Saudi Arabia were controlling the game well for the most part, dominating possession as well as the shot count. They continued with a pretty high line and looked to play positive and fluid football. Their passmap showed that they were doing a good job of getting lots of different players involved in the game.

Source: Between the Posts

But when the big chances came, Poland just crushed it. Saudi Arabia were better across most of the pitch, but Poland were better in both boxes. Robert Lewandowski assisted the first goal and scored the second, giving a pretty basic lesson in the “stay fairly organised and rely on one match-winner” theory of international football that dates back to at least Argentina’s 1986 title. It worked. They didn’t create many dangerous situations, but they were extremely effective at turning those situations into chances.

A draw against Argentina would definitely see Poland through. If they lose that game, they’ll have to rely on Saudi Arabia not beating Mexico and some favourable goal difference. I’d rather be Poland than Saudi Arabia right now, but it looks like we could have a pretty dramatic ending in Group C.

France 2-1 Denmark

France just absolutely cooked Denmark.

All the things that worked against Australia kept working here. Theo Hernandez is perfectly suited to overlapping Kylian Mbappé on the left. Ousmane Dembélé is brilliant at holding a wide line on the right, allowing (in this case) Jules Koundé to stay as a solid defender. Aurélien Tchouaméni can cover for Adrien Rabiot, who’s free to concentrate on making surprisingly dangerous runs into the box. Antoine Griezmann then drops a little deeper to become a crucial playmaker. Olivier Giroud is doing his thing as a link-up target man. Didier Deschamps might have stumbled onto it, but this team just works.

Denmark really struggled to contain France and offer anything from open play. Once again, their best attacking threat was from set pieces. The Danish Superliga became heavily focused on set piece goals during the 2010s, led by FC Midtjylland and then widely adopted by other sides. There was a big focus on specific routines, and this mentality seems to have filtered to the national team. It helps when you have Christian Eriksen, but I think that’s far from the only factor. This is an obvious area where a more limited team can do well at international level, and Denmark are reaping the rewards.

But you just can’t stop France when they play like this, and you certainly can’t stop Mbappé. He’s been unhappy that Paris Saint-Germain play him as a striker, but this role on the left close to Giroud is absolutely perfect for him. You just have to pray he has a bad game for some reason. France are now mathematically through and almost certain to finish first, so expect them to heavily rotate against Tunisia. Denmark need to beat Australia and hope Tunisia don’t pull off a miracle. It’s far from secure, but I’d back them to do it.

Argentina 2-0 Mexico

I thought Argentina actually played very well against Saudi Arabia in the first game and should have won. In the first half especially, they were creating high quality chances at will, even if they got marginally caught offside. It was a really positive performance that convinced me this was a very serious side, even if they didn’t get the three points.

So, inevitably, they got the win over Mexico in a game where I was much, much less impressed.

Argentina were atrocious in the first half. This set up was asking Lionel Messi to be the all encompassing number ten. He’s supposed to be the guy both making the decisive pass and also getting on the end of things. Part of that is because Lautaro Martínez just wasn’t at it today and Ángel Di María looks like he’s coming to the end. But they were asking Messi to run the show when speculation exists that he’s carrying a knock. So there was no one who could really stretch Mexico or force them to defend uncomfortable situations. It… wasn’t great.

Were they better after the second half? Not really. Across the 90-something minutes, they had just six touches in Mexico’s box. By comparison, they had 25 touches in Saudi Arabia’s box on Tuesday. This really wasn’t about a second half in which Argentina came roaring out. It was about Messi and Enzo Fernández both scoring screamers that took the game away from Mexico. That was more than enough, but it really was it.

Yes, that’s it! Source: Opta Analyst

Mexico set out to nullify Argentina in a low block, but it really shouldn’t have been that easy. Tactically speaking, they didn’t do anything particularly interesting. I was much more impressed by how the US shut down England than this. They just hung on in there until Argentina scored two worldies. It wasn’t an impressive spectacle for the most part, even if the tension and two brilliant moments made it an enjoyable watch.

Argentina are now at 78% to go through according to FiveThirtyEight. They need to beat Poland, or draw and hope Mexico get something from Saudi Arabia. 78% feels about right for those odds. Comparatively, this is the worst Mexico team I can remember watching at a World Cup. I don’t watch Concacaf football very often (you should read Getting CONCACAFed if that’s your thing), but there’s just nothing that excites me watching Mexico. They’re so nothing-y. To go through without relying on Argentina losing, Mexico would have to beat Saudi Arabia by a lot of goals. I don’t feel good about that.